The Dunning-Krugar effect is in it’s simplest terms the common over confidence that comes with a lack of knowledge. In contrast, it is common to see scientists and engineers with a great deal of expertise speak cautiously in terms of probabilities being careful themselves to guard against their own cognitive biases and more importantly not to overstate their position always leaving room for alternative points of view or new data.
It is very common to see individuals, foundation sales guys, or uninformed foundation repair contractors make overconfident claims … many of which are completely unsupported! For example, one such individual has claimed that by installing rain gutters to divert water from reaching the soil below footings you can control all foundation movement. There are several problems with this line of thinking, here are just a few:
This is not untypical. Foundation repair salesmen and contractors are trained to be overconfident and are many times taught that they know just as much or more than licensed professional engineers. They fulfil this role easily since they have comparatively little knowledge making them perfect for the Dunning-Krugar Effect.
in contrast, licensed professional engineers do not speak with over confidence; they communicate more in terms of likely probabilities. I titled a series of blogs, Rules of Thumb in Foundation Inspections (to read the series, click HERE & scroll to the bottom of the page). One of the main points that I have emphasized is that any one particular rule of thumb can in fact with varying degrees of probability, point to various conclusions. In fact it takes a detailed look at all or many of the important factors to reach a solid conclusion … and even then sometimes it takes more investigation. No conclusion is ever not subject to rethinking with new data or better analysis.
Projecting in an overconfident way does not validate a claim. In fact due to the Dunning-Kruger Effect it should make us all wary of those who do.
For more information on foundation inspections, click HERE.